So, this week, the number 1 cryptocurrency in the world sank to almost $ 25,000 per coin. Gone are the days when bitcoin "flew" on Elon Musk's tweets or on the next purchase of Tesla or Microstrategy itself. The market is already considering more global factors when determining its mood. From our point of view, now the situation in the cryptocurrency market is banal. The first is the "bearish" trend. And on a "bearish" trend, the asset falls in price. The second is geopolitics. It remains difficult because of the military conflict in Ukraine, which threatens to spill out beyond its borders. The third is the "foundation". The world's largest central banks have set a course to raise the key rate, so monetary policy is tightening, therefore, demand for safe assets is growing, and risky assets are falling. And it is very difficult to find a riskier asset than bitcoin. The fourth is technical. On the 4-hour TF, we have a descending channel, on the daily TF, we have a descending trend line. Thus, almost all factors are now working against "bitcoin". And we wrote about all these factors even before the last fall, a week or two ago. Thus, we believe that nothing surprising is happening in the market right now. We are already much more surprised by the strong fall of the euro and the pound, which are still currencies, not cryptocurrencies, which means they should be much more stable. But if such "monsters of the currency shop" as the euro and the pound are already falling recklessly, then where can bitcoin hope for stability?
Bitcoin is a useless "something".
It is also worth noting that in recent months we have repeatedly written about the "correction scenario". We believe that bitcoin may well sink in price to $ 10,000, and maybe even lower. In addition to the above factors, it should be noted that any upward trend always ended with a drop in "digital gold" by 80-90%. That is, if the maximum price value of the "bitcoin" was $ 70,000, then it can fall to the level of $ 14,000 easily and freely. Further, when the next "bearish" trend begins, investors and traders sharply recall that bitcoin is a useless piece of code and, accordingly, its actual value (if determined by utility) is zero. Of course, there is also the cost of production, but imagine a situation when you find something incomprehensible in the ground, which has no practical application and begin to dig this "something" out of the ground in large quantities. And then you go to the market and try to sell this "something". They ask you what it is and why it is needed, and you answer: it is completely useless, but I spent some time and my labor to get it out of the ground, so the price is $ 100 per kilogram. Approximately the same thing happens with bitcoin. If gold is a metal from which you can make jewelry, jewelry, or railway rails (whatever), then you can't use bitcoin in any way. Accordingly, theoretically, its price can sink to zero.
In the 24-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" were fixed below the level of $ 29,750. Recall that this level is at least 2021. Bitcoin fell this week almost to the next level of $ 24,350 but still did not work it out. Therefore, this level is now the target for sellers, and the descending trend line now clearly signals what the current trend is.
