On the 4-hour TF, the current picture for bitcoin looks in more detail. There is a descending channel, and the quotes of the "bitcoin" have already gone much lower than it. After a strong fall, an upward pullback followed (hello to the euro and the pound), but it is still not necessary to count on a new upward trend. At the moment, bitcoin is trading at $ 30,000 per coin near the level of $ 29,750. We do not see a single reason or reason for the new growth of the cryptocurrency yet, but at the same time, we admit that there may be quite strong upward corrections. However, they are unlikely to break the "bearish" trend. The market has already realized that the "bullish" trend is over, so it simply does not make sense to buy bitcoin now. All the fundamental factors continue to work against it, but that's not even what matters. The bitcoin market is quite simple. There are clear periods of its growth, decline, and consolidation. It usually looks like this: 1-2 years of strong growth, then 1-2 years of falling by 80-90%, and several years of consolidation in a limited price range. Accordingly, over the next year, BTC may fall to $ 10,000 and trade around this level for the next few years.
Let's remember why Bitcoin started its latest upward trend in the first place? The pandemic began, central banks lowered their rates to zero, making bank deposits and bonds simply unnecessary (in Europe, until now, when placing a deposit in a bank, you pay the bank, not you), and began to stimulate the economy with hundreds of billions of money. Naturally, there was a huge money supply that needed to be put somewhere. Some of the money went to support the poorest segments of the population, but most of it settled on the stock and cryptocurrency markets, as well as "under the pillows" - there is nowhere to spend money during a pandemic! Thus, it turns out that bitcoin grew not because the demand for it increased, but because there was too much money in the economy and it had to be put somewhere. The process of tightening monetary policy is underway now, and it has just begun. The Central Bank is raising rates, and this summer the Fed may begin to reduce its balance sheet. That is, to sell off all those treasury and mortgage bonds, of which it has $ 9 trillion. In other words, the Fed could potentially withdraw $ 9 trillion from the economy. The money supply will fall, and the profitability of safe assets will grow. Bitcoin does not fit into this picture of the universe. It turns out that bitcoin is a "hype" asset. The demand for it is often artificially stimulated. If we take its real advantages, advantages over currencies and investment instruments, and usefulness, then there will not be such a long list. Cryptocurrencies are still about anonymity. This is their key plus. But some central banks believe that there should be no anonymous payments in their financial system and, accordingly, tax evasion and various "gray" transactions. Therefore, the Bank of China simply takes and bans cryptocurrencies on its territory. And China is not El Salvador, its market is huge.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of the "bitcoin" fell to the level of $ 29,750. Bitcoin may well continue the correction for some time, but as long as it is below the upper limit of the descending channel, it maintains a downward trend. So the forecast is as follows - a drop to the level of $ 24,350.
