Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair did not show anything interesting on Tuesday, as we expected. However, the pair still managed to show a slight increase during the day, which was replaced by a slight fall in the afternoon. In general, the volatility for the pair amounted to 70 points today, which is neither too much nor too little. In addition, an ascending channel was formed, which now supports bull traders, but it is so weak and narrow that it is unlikely to last long. We would call it "formal". No important reports, so traders had nothing to react to during the day. As a result, we got an absolutely boring day, the same as Monday. The euro continues to try to rise against the dollar when the foundation and macroeconomics do not interfere with it. But, as you can see, it turns out very badly. Tomorrow everything can change, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech in America. We do not believe that there will be a reaction to this important (by title) event, but such a possibility exists.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The technical picture looks so-so on the 5-minute timeframe. As you can see, there was only one segment when the pair showed a trend movement. During this time, two buy signals were formed, on which it was possible to earn at least a bit. The first buy signal was formed when the price overcame the level of 1.0532, and the second - when the level of 1.0564 was surpassed. It was not possible to reach the target level of 1.0607, so the long position should have been closed after consolidating below 1.0564. As a result, it was possible to get 10 points of profit on it. It was also necessary to open short positions at this moment, but this signal did not bring any profit to novice traders, since the pair did not even manage to fall to the level of 1.0532. As a result, after another rebound from the level of 1.0564, it was possible to close the deal with zero profit. There was a blatant flat at the US session.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The pair started a powerful upward movement on the 30-minute timeframe, but even now there are doubts whether the pair will be able to continue it. The ascending channel is good, but it may be canceled tomorrow, since almost any round of the downward movement will lead to the price settling below it. The euro is rising with great difficulty and is unlikely to continue growing without fundamental support. And there is nowhere to take fundamental support from. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0400, 1.0465, 1.0532, 1.0564, 1.0607, 1.0636, 1.0663. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There won't be a single interesting event in the European Union again. Of course, the speech of European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos can be called an "interesting event", but it causes a market reaction once a year. The situation is a little better in America, as Powell will deliver a speech in Congress. Although we believe that he will not report anything new, this event still has great chances to influence the movement of the euro/dollar pair.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
