Respect! This word can express admiration for gold, which, in extremely unfavorable conditions for itself, shows amazing resilience. When the Fed decides to tighten monetary policy at the most aggressive pace in 28 years, the US Treasury market is off to its worst start since the 1970s, and the US dollar is comfortably at 20-year highs, the precious metal should be worth much less. Nevertheless, the "bulls" find the strength to resist the headwind.
Over the past 12 months, the USD index has risen by almost 14% due to strong demand for safe-haven assets, the strength of the US economy, and the intention of the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy. According to the latest FOMC forecasts, the federal funds rate will rise to 3.4% by the end of 2022. Reuters experts expect to see it at around 3.5%. This implies a 75 bps increase in borrowing costs at least at one of the meetings of the Committee before the end of the current year. Experts polled by Reuters believe that a big step will be taken as early as July.
If we add to the high speed of monetary restriction the transition of US stock indices into bearish territory and the rapid rally in 10-year Treasury yields towards 3.5%, it becomes clear why the dollar feels like a king in Forex. Gold is quoted in US currency, the growth of the latter, as a rule, leads to a fall in its value.
Forex currency dynamics
Rumors are growing in the market that the US dollar is being used by investors as a tool for hedging stagflationary risks. It is bought in the absence of other alternatives. Only the avoidance of a recession by the world economy and the cessation of the armed conflict in Ukraine can undermine the power of the USD index.
In my opinion, there is still an alternative to the US dollar as a means of insuring the risks of a combination of slow economic growth and high inflation. And it's gold. That is why the precious metal jumped after the release of data on US consumer prices for May. And it remains stable against the background of zero growth in US GDP in the second quarter expected by the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed. Stagflation is a true friend not only to the dollar, but also to XAUUSD.
Meanwhile, a significant event took place on the physical gold market: for the first time since February, Switzerland bought precious metals from Russia in the amount of 3 tons for processing.
Dynamics of purchases of Russian gold by Switzerland
If we draw analogies with oil, then the news could be viewed as a pullback in the process of ousting Russia from the market. But the role of the Russian Federation in the gold market is negligible compared to oil. Thus, 3 tons purchased by Switzerland is only 2% of the total precious metal imports.
Gold, Daily chart
Technically, the Broadening Wedge pattern continues to materialize on the gold daily chart. Falling below the lower limit of the fair value range of $1825–1861 per ounce is a reason for selling.
