Over the last seven trading sessions, gold closed higher than the daily opening price and higher than the previous day's closing price. However, there was no strong bullish trend. The price also did not reach a new high. There were no clear signs that the recent selling pressure was over.
Market participants are waiting for two major reports on inflation and jobs.The first major report will come out today when the US Labor Department releases its June Nonfarm Payrolls report. Next week, this will be followed by the latest inflationary figures when the BEA releases the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the past month. Market participants want to be confident that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this month.According to CME's FedWatch Tool, there is no debate. This is because FedWatch predicts a 93.9% probability that the Fed will continue its aggressive anti-inflation stance with successive rate hikes of 0,75%.The Federal Reserve shifted its focus from its dual mandate of maximum employment and inflation at a target range of 2%. The Fed's recent data and minutes make it clear that it is focused on lowering inflation, with the clear understanding that aggressive rate increases will lead to economic deflation and a reduction in the workforce.This is the situation that analysts and market participants have been worried about as they fear it could lead to economic uncertainty leading to a recession.The latest consensus is expected to show that job growth remains solid but is contracting. This report is projected to indicate that approximately 272K new jobs were added last month and that the unemployment rate will remain steady at 3.6%.On July 13, the BEA will release the latest data on inflation.The latest economic data indicates that the US economy has deteriorated with consumer confidence falling significantly. It is also clear that the Fed will remain steadfast in its determination to bring inflation down from its current elevated levels and 40-year highs, and therefore will continue to raise interest rates this month and in September.Based on the very high probability that the Fed will raise rates for the second time in a row by 75 basis points at the end of this month, it is certainly a reasonable assumption that the recent pressure from gold sellers will continue.
