According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday performed a consolidation over the downward trend corridor but could not continue the growth process. On Monday and Tuesday, the pair's quotes moved horizontally, and now it is unclear what traders will do in the coming days. However, it should be recognized that American inflation may become the fundamental report for the coming month. It will depend on how much the Fed's interest rate is raised next month. And the understanding of this depends on whether the US dollar will resume the growth process. On the hourly chart, the picture is now quite unsightly, so I recommend switching to the 4-hour, where at least it is more or less clear what is happening. On the hourly chart, you should wait for sensible signals: consolidation above/below important levels or the formation of new corridors/trend lines.
If traders are waiting for the information background this week to trade the British more actively, they will have only two chances to do so. Today there is a report on inflation in the US, and on Friday – a report on GDP in the UK. From my point of view, inflation in the US will remain strong, that is, not lower than 8.9%. And according to traders' expectations, GDP in the UK should decline by 0.2% in the second quarter. Last week, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said the economy would face a recession in the second half of 2022. Therefore, the second quarter's GDP forecast will probably be fulfilled. And therefore, both reports should support the US dollar. Judging by the picture on the 4-hour chart, the US currency's growth is highly probable. Thus, we are closely following the statistics today and Friday and are waiting for a new fall in the British pound.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2250) and continues falling towards 1.1980. The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the British and some growth in the direction of the 1.2250 level. Fixing the quotes at 1.1980 will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1709). Emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Over the past week, the mood of the "non-commercial" category of traders has become a little more "bearish." The number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased by 5,301 units, and the number of short contracts decreased by 2,882. Thus, the general mood of the major players remained the same – "bearish," and the number of short contracts still exceeded the number of long contracts by several times. The major players remain mostly in the pound sales, and their mood has not changed much lately. The pound itself has shown growth in recent weeks, but COT reports make it clear that the Briton may resume its decline, as the positions of bull traders are in no hurry to improve enough to count on an upward trend.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
USA - consumer price index (12:30 UTC).
On Wednesday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain only one interesting entry. Thus, the information background's influence on traders' mood today will be present only in the afternoon.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
I recommended new sales of the British when anchoring under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1933. It was also possible to sell at the rebound from the 1.2250 level on the 4-hour chart. Now, these deals can be kept open. I recommend buying the British when rebounding from the level of 1.1980 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.2250.
