The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not require adjustments, despite the increase in quotes within the framework of the expected wave 4 turned out to be stronger than I expected. The new wave marking does not yet consider the rising wave marked with a bold red line. The whole wave structure can become more complicated once again, but any structure can always take a more complex and extended form. The construction of an ascending wave has been completed, which is interpreted as wave 4 of the downward trend section. If this assumption is correct, the instrument continues to build a descending wave 5. The assumed wave 4 has taken a five-wave but corrective form. However, it can still be considered wave 4. There are no grounds to assume the completion of the downward trend section. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0356 mark, which equates to 261.8% by Fibonacci, indicates that the market is not ready to continue buying the EU currency. And a successful breakout attempt of 0.9989, which corresponds to 323.6% by Fibonacci, on the contrary, indicates a willingness to continue reducing demand for the euro. I expect the decline in the quotes of the instrument will continue with targets located below the 1.0000 mark within wave 5. Wave 5 can take on almost any length since wave 4 was much longer than wave 2.US GDP shrank by only 0.6%.
The euro/dollar instrument on Thursday increased by 65 basis points and then decreased by the same amount. These price changes are not big enough to talk about making additions to the current wave picture. The news background was quite weak today, but I assume it slightly impacted the market mood. US GDP in the latest estimate for the second quarter was -0.6% QoQ. Remember that the US economy fell by 1.6% in the first quarter, and the markets expected a 0.8% drop in the second quarter. Thus, we can even conclude that this report turned out to be better than market expectations. Although it is quite difficult to call the quarter's economic decline by 0.6% a "positive moment."The demand for the US currency has increased slightly after this report, which is today's most controversial moment. To begin with, the demand for the dollar has remained very high for a long time. Therefore, "slightly increased" is only a plus to the high value that is already available. I will also note that the US economy may be the first to enter a serious recession. Still, the markets are not interested because the demand for the dollar remains very high. This week, it remains only to wait for Jerome Powell's performance, which will take place tomorrow evening. But I don't think that the wave pattern, which assumes the construction of a downward wave, will change after the speech of the Fed president. There are already formal grounds for completing the fifth wave since it has gone beyond the low of the third wave. But still, I think it will take a more extended form than it is now.
General conclusions.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section continues. I advise you to sell the instrument with targets located near the calculated mark of 0.9397, which is equal to 423.6% Fibonacci, for each MACD signal "down," counting on the construction of wave 5. So far, I do not see a single signal indicating this wave's completion.
At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any length, so I think it's best to isolate the three and five-wave standard structures from the overall picture and work on them.
