Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair managed to "fly" from side to side on Friday. Recall that until Friday, the pair was between the levels of 0.9900 and 1.0020 for three trading days of the week. That is, inside the horizontal channel. Of course, there was a slight upward slope in the movement, but it was absolutely impossible to call it a "trend". The pair exceeded the level of 1.0020 and reached the level of 1.0072 on Friday. Therefore, formally, one can even talk about a new upward trend. However, Friday ended with a drop of 120 points. And, of course, in this state of affairs, the resumption of the global downtrend is much more likely. Moreover, the price continues to be located in close proximity to its low - the level of 0.9900. We can only take note of one event that really had a very strong impact on the market on Friday. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium provoked the dollar to strengthen on all fronts. In short, Powell assured the markets that the Fed will continue to raise the key rate. Accordingly, its mood remains hawkish, and the dollar continues to maintain a favorable fundamental background for itself. We believe that one of the main factors that brought the pair so low continues to be relevant, therefore, we can count on further movement to the downside.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Many great signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. This is because the price initially went up 140 points, and then went down the same amount. The first buy signal was very good - a rebound from the level of 0.9952. After it, the pair rose to the level of 1.0020 and rebounded from it. Therefore, a long position should have been closed with a profit of about 40 points and shorts should have been opened. The sell signal turned out to be false, but the price passed 15 points down after its formation. Therefore, the deal was closed at breakeven by Stop Loss. This was followed by a buy signal about overcoming the level of 1.0034, after which the pair reached 1.0072. It was possible to earn another 25 points in this transaction. On the rebound from the level of 1.0072 and the ideal development of the level of 1.0020 - another 25. And then Powell's speech began. Formally, novice traders could continue to trade, but still the speech began quite late, and no one knew exactly what Powell would say. Therefore, we believe that it was not necessary to take risks and enter the market, too. However, if beginners continued to work out technical signals, they could earn more, since the signals were still accurate and the movements were strong. In any case, we managed to earn at least 80 points on the first four deals.
How to trade on Monday:
The quotes may resume to fall on the 30-minute timeframe in the near future. At the moment, the weakest upward trend, which is supported by the rising trend line, still remains. However, the price can overcome it on Monday. In general, we continue to expect the dollar's further growth and the euro to fall. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels 0.9900-0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. No important events or publications are scheduled in the European Union and the United States on Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to pay attention to tomorrow. The pair can stand in one place all day with low volatility, but you need to be prepared for an option with a fairly strong movement.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
