Analysis of Wednesday's deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD currency pair showed, of course, much less volatility on Wednesday than a day earlier. This is not surprising, since, unlike Tuesday, there were much fewer reports on Wednesday, and they were much less significant. The pair showed a formal correction to the level of 1.0020 during the day, bounced off this level in perfect accuracy and now has every chance to resume the downward movement. Recall that the euro was growing for almost a whole week, but only one report on inflation in the US ruined everything. The pair fell almost 200 points and the upward trend was broken. Thus, now there is a high probability of a new fall of the euro, at least to the level of 0.9877, which is a 20-year low. Of the important, or rather, relatively important events of the day, we can single out the report on European industrial production for July. This figure on a monthly basis decreased by 2.3%, and on an annualized basis - by 2.4%. All the most pessimistic forecasts were much higher. Traders reacted to this report with minimal shorts, after which they resumed the correction of the pair. And after a rebound from the level of 1.0020, the general fall of the euro may resume.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
It is clearly seen on the 5-minute timeframe that the pair was trading as if reluctantly, which we warned about the previous day. All day long, the price was more sideways than trending. It is good that few trading signals were formed. Actually, just one. The price reached the level of 1.0020 at the end of the European session and rebounded from it. After that, it went down at least 35 points, but until the evening it could not fall to the level of 0.9952, which is the nearest target. Therefore, novice traders could close the deal manually. Profit, as we have already said, was at least 35 points.
How to trade on Thursday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the pair easily and simply, with the help of just one inflation report in America, canceled the upward trend and now can rush down again to update its 20-year lows. The level of 1.0020, which gave hope for the recovery of the upward trend, did not miss the price above itself, so now the course is set at 0.9877. On the 5-minute TF on Thursday it is recommended to trade at the levels of 0.9877, 0.9910, 0.9952, 1.0020-1.0034, 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156, 1.0221. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. There are no major events or reports scheduled in the EU on Thursday. Three secondary reports will be released in America, which can provoke a market reaction by a maximum of 20-30 points. We are talking about retail sales, applications for unemployment benefits and industrial production. However, we believe that the US dollar now has excellent chances of growth even without the help of macroeconomic statistics.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
