Bitcoin is trading inside the side channel of $18,500 - $24,350. Last week, the report on American inflation provoked the fall of many instruments and currency pairs, and bitcoin is no exception. As of Monday, the quotes of the "bitcoin" have dropped to $ 18,500, and now we are waiting for a new test of this level. It is noteworthy that the day after tomorrow, the Fed will announce the results of its next meeting, and traders are waiting for a new increase in the key rate by 0.75%. Recall that tightening monetary policy (especially the Fed) is negative for all risky assets. Thus, we would say that the probability of a fall resumption this week is very high. But for this, as already mentioned, you need to overcome the level of $ 18,500, which has already kept the cryptocurrency below itself four times. If the fifth attempt to overcome this level is also unsuccessful, then bitcoin will remain inside the side channel, and we can expect a new round of upward movement with a target of $ 24,350.
The descending trend line is also important and continues to be relevant. Recall that it is already very close to the price, and if overcoming the $ 18,500 level does not happen in the near future, then it can be overcome. But if at the same time the price remains inside the side channel, then such a signal cannot be regarded as a buy signal. The trend line will lose its relevance, and the main trend guide will be the side channel. We also note that over the past three months, the cryptocurrency has not managed to show a significant correction, probably having contracted the "disease" of the euro and the pound. This point also suggests that traders are not ready to buy bitcoin at this time, despite the "very favorable price," as various crypto experts assure us. From our point of view, the fall may persist until the end of this year, or at least until the moment when the Fed begins to hint at the end of the rate hike cycle. In the meantime, this moment is still far away since inflation has only closed with a decline in the last two months, while in August, the decline was weaker than the markets expected.
On the 24-hour timeframe, the "bitcoin" quotes could not overcome the $ 24,350, but they also cannot yet overcome the $18,500 (127.2% Fibonacci). Thus, we have a side channel and how much time bitcoin will spend in it is unknown. We recommend not to rush to open positions and withdrawals. It is much better to wait for the price to exit this channel and only then open the corresponding transactions. Overcoming the $18,500 level will open the way to the $12,426 level. You can also use rebound signals (from the trend line or the upper/lower border of the channel).
