On the 4-hour TF, it is also clearly visible that the price has fallen to the lower border of the side channel - $ 18,500. This will be the fifth test of this level, and from our point of view, the longer bitcoin tries to overcome it, the more chances it has to overcome. Moreover, the Fed will hold a meeting this week and on the eve of this event, bitcoin has already fallen by $ 4,000, failing to reach the upper limit of the $24,350 channel. But do not focus all your attention only on the Fed rate. Jerome Powell's performance will also be important. After the Fed raises the rate by 0.75% three times in a row, the head of the Fed may declare that its growth rate may slow down. Naturally, such words cannot be interpreted as "dovish" since they will still be about further tightening monetary policy. But at the same time, we remember that the interpretation of the market for an event is important, not the event itself. The QT program should also be remembered, according to which about $ 100 billion is withdrawn from the economy every month. This program is the antipode of the QE program, according to which the American economy was pumped with money from "nowhere" for many years. Thus, if earlier bitcoin grew due to the growth of the money supply, now it can continue to fall due to its reduction.
At the same time, the author of the work "Black Swan," Nassim Taleb, once again criticized bitcoin, calling it a "tumor of the economy." Taleb accused the Fed of creating "bubbles" in the economy, as the regulator kept the key rate at zero for a long time, "destroying the economic structure." The economist believes that thanks to these actions, people under 40 now do not understand how the economy functions, and American society will have to face the consequences. In principle, Taleb is right because low rates combined with huge cash injections lead to society needing to spend money somewhere, which was quite difficult during the pandemic. As a result, we have seen unprecedented growth in the cryptocurrency and stock markets. We already see the reverse process. Therefore, bitcoin may well return to the starting positions from which growth began in 2020.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the "bitcoin" quotes completed an upward correction. We believe the decline will continue in the medium term, but we need to wait for the price to consolidate below the $17,582 - $18,500 area. If this happens, the first target for the fall will be the level of $ 12,426. The rebound from the level of $18,500 (or $17,582) can be used for small purchases, but be careful – we still have a strong downward trend.
