On the 4-hour TF, it is also clearly visible that the price dropped to the lower border of the side channel - $ 18,500 and the fifth test of this level occurred, again unsuccessful. Thus, with grief in half, bitcoin is being held back from another collapse, but recall that now traders have a descending channel at their disposal that will push the cryptocurrency down. Also recall that, formally, the price is still inside the side channel of $18,500-$24,350. She will not be able to stay on two channels at the same time forever, so sooner or later, the situation will clear up. We still expect a new drop in "bitcoin."
In principle, the same opinion is shared by Bloomberg's leading economist, Mike McGlone. He noted that the Fed has already raised the key rate by 2.25% and will not stop there. "I think the market situation will be worse than in 2008 and worse than the Great Financial Crisis. The Fed cannot stabilize the economy through new stimulus programs and a new reduction in the key rate. This means that the market investment conditions will remain unfavorable for a long time," McGlone believes. "In the future, cryptocurrencies will be valued much higher than they are now. The world is still in the process of adopting and getting used to digital assets. However, the market is in a "bearish" trend so far. Accordingly, the markets will fall even more than they are now before they start to grow again," McGlone said. "Ether and bitcoin will grow significantly in the next 5-10 years. It's just a matter of time before Bitcoin is worth $100,000 per coin. Its code provides for a slowdown in market supply, and this cannot be changed in any way. There won't be more Bitcoin coins after a certain point." The Bloomberg economist also noted that it is impossible to predict the bitcoin exchange rate. Any investment in cryptocurrency is made at your own risk.
We fully agree with McGlone's opinion, as we also believe that bitcoin will fall, at least until the Fed stops raising the rate. It should also be remembered that the money supply has already begun to decrease in the USA due to the QT program. It implies a reduction of $3 trillion over the next three years. Therefore, we now have as many as two tightening programs, and this isn't good for bitcoin and the US stock market.
In the 4-hour timeframe, the quotes of "bitcoin" completed an upward correction. We believe the decline will continue in the medium term, but we need to wait for the price to consolidate below the area of $17,582-$18,500. If this happens, the first target for the fall will be the level of $12,426. The rebound from the level of $18,500 (or $17,582) can be used for small purchases, but be careful – we still have a strong downward trend.
