Analysis of Friday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Friday. During the day, there was an attempt to correct upwards, but it was not possible to settle above the level of 1.1211. But we managed to settle below the rising channel, which we called quite wide. In principle, we expected that the pair would fall to its lower border, but it was not obvious that this channel would be overcome. At the moment, the pair has retreated 400 points from its last high. So far, the pound can still resume its growth, as the previous growth was equal to 1100 points. But at the same time, every new day that ends in the "negative" is a new reason to think about the resumption of a long-term downward trend. Technically, the pound has taken a strong step forward to complete the downtrend, but what if the geopolitical background does not allow the pound to grow? Let's remind novice traders that the pound (like the euro) is a risky currency, from which they usually try to get rid of in difficult geopolitical times in favor of a stable dollar. Since the geopolitical situation is not improving, but only getting worse, the British pound may well resume falling. Well, on Friday, strong statistics from America also contributed to the pair's fall.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Everything was just fine in regards to Friday's trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe. The price reached the area of 1.1200-1.1236 during the European trading session, where it spent several hours. In principle, the sell signal was formed exactly at the time when the reports on Nonfarm and unemployment in the US were published. That is, novice traders could well ignore this sell signal, since it definitely cannot be called strong. However, strong statistics from the US, which implied the dollar's growth, the formation of a signal at the very beginning of the movement and the clarity of the signal itself, allowed beginners to try to win back this signal. If they did, they could make a profit of about 60 points, and the position had to be closed manually in the late afternoon, since there were no other signals formed on Friday. If the beginners missed this signal, then it's okay too.
How to trade on Monday:
On the 30-minute timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is leaning more and more every day to resume the long-term downward trend. The price has already settled below the rising channel, many indicators on other timeframes also signal the resumption of the downward trend. Geopolitics and the foundation remain on the side of the US currency. On the 5-minute TF tomorrow it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0833, 1.0927, 1.1024, 1.1200-1.1211-1.1236, 1.1356, 1.1443. When the price passes after opening a position in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. There are no major events or reports scheduled for Monday in the UK and US. Therefore, traders will have nothing to react to, and the pair's volatility may finally decrease slightly. It was again quite high on Friday.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
