The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not require adjustments, but it is undoubtedly becoming more complicated. It may become more complicated than ever in the future. We saw the completion of the construction of the next five-wave impulse descending wave structure, then one upward correction wave (marked with a bold line), after which the low waves of 5 were updated. These movements allow me to conclude that the pattern of five months ago was repeated when the 5-wave structure down was completed in the same way, one wave up, and we saw five more waves down. There is no question of any classical wave structure (5 trend waves, 3 correction waves) right now. The news background is such that the market even builds single corrective waves with great reluctance. Thus, in such circumstances, I cannot predict the end of the downward trend segment. We can still observe for a very long time the picture of "a strong wave down-a weak corrective wave up." The goals of the downward trend segment, which has been complicated and lengthened many times, can be found up to 90 figures or even lower. At this point, the (presumably) wave 3 of the downward trend section can be built.
The ECB is rushing to the rescue of the euro.
The euro/dollar instrument rose by 10-20 basis points on Tuesday. This week, the amplitude of movements decreased, but this did not surprise me since the news background on Monday and Tuesday was practically absent. The market does not seek to mindlessly sell the euro daily, although it has all the necessary grounds for this. Nevertheless, the US inflation report for September will be released on Thursday, so it's better to wait for this report and only then adjust the trading strategy.
In my opinion, only one event deserved the market's attention yesterday. Klaas Knot, one of the ECB's governing council, said that in October, the regulator would have to take another decisive step on the interest rate. If the rate was raised a month earlier by 75 basis points, then in October, it could be raised by 75-100 points. This information is positive for the euro currency, but the current wave markup is still such that it is very difficult to expect the growth of the instrument. Hypothetically, the instrument could complete the construction of a downward trend segment on September 28. In this case, the marking of the descending section of the trend will have to be supplemented, and it will be concluded that the construction of the ascending section began on September 28. In this case, we are now observing the construction of wave 2, not wave 3, and the current wave markings of the British and European will already coincide. However, in this scenario, the news background must be slightly positive for the euro, and the market mood has changed to "bullish." From my point of view, it depends a lot on the geopolitical situation in the world, and it just does not give confidence to the markets, so they try to avoid risky assets.
General conclusions.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of a downward trend section continues but can end at any time. At this time, the instrument can build a new impulse wave, so I advise selling with targets near the calculated mark of 0.9397, which equates to 423.6% by Fibonacci, by the MACD reversals "down." I urge caution, as it is unclear how much longer the overall decline of the instrument will continue.
At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any length, so I think it's best to isolate the three and five-wave standard structures from the overall picture and work on them. One of these five waves has just been completed, and a new one has begun its construction.
