For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave marking looks quite complicated at the moment but still does not require any clarification. We have a supposedly completed downward trend segment consisting of five waves a-b-c-d-e. If this is indeed the case, then the construction of a new upward trend section has begun. The first wave is supposedly completed, and the construction of wave 2 has begun. Unfortunately, there is no confidence in this particular scenario since the instrument must go beyond the peak of the last wave to show us its readiness to build an upward section of the trend and not complicate the downward one once again. The peak of the nearest wave is located at about 23 figures. Thus, even after the pound has increased by 1000 points, you need to go up another 1000 points to reach this peak. I also want to note that the wave markings of the euro and the pound are different now. Many have seen strong British growth in a short time, so they are "itching" to make purchases. However, let me remind you that even if the upward section has started building now, we should see another downward correction wave (after completing 1). If the quotes do not fall below the low wave e (which is very difficult, but not impossible), then you can also expect to build a new upward wave 3 and buy.
British statistics are not bad.
The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument increased by 40 basis points on October 11. However, a successful attempt to break through the 200.0% Fibonacci level indicates the market's readiness for new sales rather than purchases. If the current wave markup is correct, the construction of a new upward wave 3 may begin in the coming days. However, the news background should support the British pound not locally but globally.
Today, he supported the pound locally. The unemployment rate in August decreased from 3.6% to 3.5%, and wages increased by 6%, with approximately the same market expectations. Thus, I can say that the statistics are positive, but the market expected exactly such figures. The demand for the British pound increased after the release of these reports, and from the day's low, it has already increased by 90 points. However, on the scale of the movements of recent weeks, this increase looks unconvincing. On the scale of the negative news background of recent months, the drop in unemployment and wage growth also does not look entirely convincing. If we consider only the news background, I would not conclude that the construction of a new upward wave will begin now.
There are many more important topics at this time. The next meeting of the Bank of England, its actions on buying treasury bonds, the volumes of which were expanded yesterday. Another open topic is tax cuts, which faced mass criticism and calls to dismiss Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. These factors are more likely to lower the demand for the pound sterling. And then, the wave marking for the British will require adjustments and will adjust to the marking of the Europeans. The situation is ambiguous, and it is necessary to closely monitor the nature of incoming data and the reaction of the market to them.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument suggests a new decline in demand for the pound. I advise now selling the instrument, as before, on the MACD reversals "down." It is necessary to sell more cautiously since the construction of a downward trend section could be completed. In any case, there should be a decrease since a corrective wave 2 is needed. This wave can also be impulsive, and the entire descending wave structure is transformed in this case.
The picture is similar to the euro/dollar instrument at the higher wave scale. The same ascending wave does not fit the current wave pattern, the same five waves down after it. The downward section of the trend can turn out to be almost any length, but it may already be completed.
