The wave marking of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar instrument still does not require adjustments, but it is undoubtedly becoming more complicated. It may become more complicated than ever in the future. We saw the completion of the construction of the next five-wave impulse descending wave structure, then one upward correction wave (marked with a bold line), after which the low waves of 5 were updated. These movements allow me to conclude that the pattern of five months ago was repeated when the 5-wave structure down was completed in the same way, one wave up, and we saw five more waves down. There is no question of any classical wave structure (5 trend waves, 3 correction waves) right now. The news background is such that the market even builds single corrective waves with great reluctance. Thus, in such circumstances, I cannot predict the end of the downward trend segment. We can still observe for a very long time the picture of "a strong wave down-a weak corrective wave up." The goals of the downward trend segment, which has been complicated and lengthened many times, can be found up to 90 figures or even lower. At this point, the (presumably) wave 3 of the downward trend section can be built.
Both central banks will almost certainly raise rates by another 75 points.
The euro/dollar instrument did not rise or fall by 1 point on Wednesday. If the amplitude was quite low on the first two days of the week, today, it is minimal. More active movements may follow in the afternoon, but so far, there are none as there is practically no news background. Just this morning, a report on industrial production was released in the European Union, which did not arouse any market interest.
Now it all comes down to a few points in the economy. First, it is very important to understand how much (if at all) inflation in the United States will decrease by the end of September (the report will be released tomorrow). Second, will the ECB and the Fed justify the hopes of the market at the next meeting? And these two factors have nothing to do with each other. Whatever the US inflation rate is in September, the Fed will not abandon its plan to raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points. Only in the case of a sharp and strong increase in the consumer price index, the market has the right to expect an increase of more than 75 points. The same goes for the ECB. It has already "taken off the bat," although it did nothing for the year's first half to reduce inflation and twice raised the rate by 50 and 75 points. Now he can follow in the Fed's footsteps and raise the interest rate by 75 points at each meeting until inflation begins to show a slowdown. Thus, if both regulators raise rates by 75 points, neither the dollar nor the euro will benefit.
General conclusions.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward trend section continues but can end at any time. At this time, the instrument can build a new impulse wave, so I advise selling with targets near the estimated mark of 0.9397, which equates to 423.6% by Fibonacci, by the MACD reversals "down." I urge caution, as it is unclear how much longer the overall decline of the instrument will continue.
At the higher wave scale, the wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes noticeably more complicated and lengthens. It can take on almost any length, so I think it's best to isolate the three and five-wave standard structures from the overall picture and work on them. One of these five waves has just been completed, and a new one has begun its construction.
