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Crypto Analysis:::2022-10-12T21:32:38

Bitcoin: worst and best scenario for the major cryptocurrency

Quotes of the main cryptocurrency managed to stay above the July lows, and we even saw an attempt to cautiously rebound upwards.

However, it was too early to draw final conclusions, as the FOMC minutes was to be published, which may affect dollar volatility and risk appetite.

And, data on inflation in the United States will be released on Thursday, which can also shake the crypto market. In addition, the report on wholesale inflation, PPI indexes turned out to be alarming.

Bitcoin: worst and best scenario for the major cryptocurrency

It is worth noting that both optimistic and pessimistic opinions are expressed in the crypto community regarding the future of the crypto market in general and bitcoin in particular. Let's consider them in more detail.

Bitcoin will rise to $1,000,000 in 2023

Ark Investment Management analyst Yassine Elmandjra, who previously made a bold forecast for the rise of the main cryptocurrency to $1 million, does not give up his opinion, despite the problematic conditions in the cryptocurrency market.

A massive correction in the digital asset market is not a problem, according to the head of Ark Invest, Cathie Wood. The tight monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is the main reason why investors are actively selling their digital assets in 2022.

Cryptocurrency analyst Yassine Elmandjra said in an interview with Bloomberg that there are still significant opportunities in bitcoin despite the sluggish price performance.

The $1 million forecast remains in place as he believes the market is likely to bounce back by the end of the monetary tightening cycle and we will experience another bull run midway through this decade.

According to the expert, the market has the potential to grow to $28 trillion if we layer each use case on top of the other, which means over a million dollars for bitcoin.

While this prediction may seem overly optimistic, some influential bitcoin proponents, such as Michael Saylor, tend to support such an analysis. However, things are not so rosy for Cathie Wood's funds as most of the Ark ETFs have lost all the value they gained during the bull market.

Recently, Wood even published an open letter asking the Fed to stop the rate hike cycle, as this is bad for the stock market and could lead to irreversible consequences. Most users did not take the letter well, highlighting the bias and partiality in this matter.

Worst case scenario - another fall

Popular crypto strategist Jason Pizzino sees the situation from a different angle and draws attention to the levels at which bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can bottom in the worst case scenario.

In his opinion, the total market capitalization of crypto assets may lose another 40% of its value even after a deep correction this year.

"So for a realistic zone, a drop depth of 80-82% is probably possible, which will reduce the capitalization to about $550 billion. In the medium scenario, this would be around $600 or $700 billion. It is now down 74% to a [June] low of $762 billion.

The fall from where we are now means a reduction in the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency by about 14%. This could be quite significant and lead to another 10% drop in the price of bitcoin."

At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is about $887 billion.

As for the main cryptocurrency, the expert believes that it could fall to levels last seen in July 2020.

"Could bitcoin drop 40% at all? From the current price to significant support levels around $11,000-$11,500, which is our bottom of the cycle buy zone, this will be a 40% drop."

However, the price still has June lows on the way. And until they are reached, short-term traders need not sound the alarm.

Analyst InstaForex
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