At the moment, the dollar has fallen by 1.182 points, or -1.04%.
There was an interest in risk in US stocks. The Dow added 1.86%:
S&P 500 — 2.65%:
and the NASDAQ Composite Index is 3.43%:
Precious metals market participants remain genuinely concerned about the remaining two FOMC meetings in November and December. There is a high probability that both Federal Reserve meetings will raise interest rates by 75 basis points each.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 97.4% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 3/4% at the November FOMC meeting and a 65.3% chance of a 3/4% rate hike in December. This will raise the federal funds rate from 300–325 basis points currently to 450–475 basis points by the end of 2022.
Last week, market participants were active buyers of both 30-year bonds and 10-year Treasuries, resulting in an inverted yield curve with 10-year yields priced slightly above 30-year bonds. Yesterday, this inversion was neutralized, with both the 10-year and 30-year bonds yielding 4.015%.
Inflation continues to be at record levels, with the latest core CPI data pointing to a modest rise in inflationary pressures from 6.3% in August to 6.5% in September. However, the eurozone has a much higher inflation rate than the United States, where the consumer price index is around 10%. As long as inflation remains extremely high and resilient, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will reduce the scope and frequency of rate hikes. It remains highly likely that the extremely aggressive monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will lead to a recession in the first quarter of 2023. The question remains how deep the recession will be as a result of the Fed's aggressive rate hikes.
