Analysis of Tuesday's deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair also continued its upward movement for most of the day, so we have the right to assume that it is not the euro or the pound that is growing, but that the dollar is falling. As usual, there was no specific reason for the pair's rise by "only" 280 points. It is unlikely that anyone will dispute the fact that we do not always see such volatility even after meetings of central banks or major reports, such as US inflation. Absolutely ordinary reports on unemployment and wages were released in the UK, which, moreover, could not provoke the pound's growth. Yes, and by almost 300 points. The unemployment rate rose, which is bad, wages also rose, but weaker than the previous month, although higher than expected. However, in any, absolutely any case, the salary report could not provoke even a third of such a strong movement. Therefore, we continue to conclude that the current movement is illogical. From a technical point of view, everything is correct, since we have an ascending trend line, but we may soon no longer see this trend line on the chart, since the price goes much higher than it. It is difficult to say what justifies such a collapse of the dollar.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Many signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe, and since the movement was trendy and volatile, it was possible to make very good money. First, the pair surpassed the 1.1793 level, then rose to the 1.1863-1.1877 area, overcame it, and then rose to the next target area 1.1967-1.1994. It was after a rebound from the latter that novice traders had to close a long position that had been opened in the morning. Profit on it amounted to at least 130 points. The rebound from the 1.1967-1.1994 area could be used to open shorts, which allowed newcomers to earn another 60 points, as the price managed to return to the level of 1.1877 before the evening, where the position should have been closed. As a result, we managed to earn almost 200 points on two deals without any problems.
How to trade on Wednesday:
The GBP/USD pair maintains an upward trend on the 30-minute time frame, which continues to be supported by an ascending trend line. Although we still don't see a good reason to show such strong growth, the market can move regardless of our opinion. So we definitely have an upward trend at this time, but we expect a significant downward trend this week. It may have already begun after the rebound from 1.2008. On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday it is recommended to trade at the levels 1.1648, 1.1716, 1.1793, 1.1863-1.1877, 1.1967, 1.1994, 1.2079, 1.2141. When the price passes after opening a position in the right direction for 20 points, Stop Loss should be set to breakeven. The UK will publish the most important inflation report, while the US will release only secondary data. However, even without this, the pound passes 200-300 points a day on "bare equipment"...
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade positions are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all positions must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
