During today's Asian trading session, EUR/USD tried to continue rising in the area above the key resistance level 1.0385 (200 EMA on the daily chart). The breakdown of which and the higher long-term resistance level 1.0500 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) significantly increases the risks of breaking the long-term bearish trend of the EUR/USD.
But so far, EUR/USD does not have such a powerful potential. Given the fact that Fed officials will continue to tighten the US central bank's monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace, most economists are inclined to believe that the 105.00 level on the dollar index (DXY) chart will hold, and the dollar will soon resume its growth. In addition to the tough policy of the Fed, this will be facilitated by the relatively better state of the American economy than in other major economies of the world, particularly the European one.
We consider the breakdown of the support at 1.0385 and resumption of EUR/USD decline to be the most probable scenario rather than an upward rally.
In this case, a break of the 1.0385 support level will be the first signal to resume short positions on EUR/USD, and a break of the support levels 1.0325 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 1.0245 (144 EMA on the daily chart and the upper limit of the descending channel on the weekly chart) will be a confirmation.
As mentioned in yesterday's review, the EUR/USD is still in a global downward trend, and fundamentally, we should expect at least a renewed decline and, at most, a further fall in the pair towards the 20-year lows, when it was trading near 0.8700, 0.8600.
Support levels: 1.0385 1.0325 1.0300 1.0245 1.0116 1.0085 1.0000 0.9745 0.9700 0.9600 0.9535 0.9500 0.9400 0.9300 0.9200 0.9200
Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0500
Trading Tips
Sell Stop 1.0370. Stop-Loss 1.0450. Take-Profit 1.0325, 1.0300, 1.0245, 1.0116, 1.0085, 1.0000, 0.9745, 0.9700, 0.9600, 0.9535, 0.9500, 0.9400, 0.9300, 0.9200, 0.9000
Buy Stop 1.0450. Stop-Loss 1.0370. Take-Profit 1.0500
