While U.S. policymakers are sorting out "who is to blame and what to do," several European economists and politicians stressed that Europe has learned from the financial crisis and is now in a good enough position to withstand further stress on its banking system.
During a recent meeting, the central theme of European politicians was the possibility of further instability in financial markets arising from problems in the banking sector, especially against the backdrop of tightening financial conditions.
The collapse of a major U.S. bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), earlier in March raised fears of contagion in the European banking system, fueled by an emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by Swiss rival UBS. Since then, the Federal Reserve has launched a program to provide additional liquidity to a number of large banks around the world, which has partially mitigated the tension.
However, according to some politicians, uncertainty and anxiety will continue to haunt markets this year. According to experts, uncertainty in the U.S. banking sector is a disturbing factor, as what is happening there now is a mystery to many. At the same time, politicians are confident that the ECB has done incredibly well, and the European Commission has helped with this: the eurozone banking system is stable, reliable and profitable, as evidenced by the numbers.
George Papaconstantinou, professor and dean at the European University Institute and former Greek finance minister, also expressed concern about the U.S. banking sector last week, saying the eurozone is in no danger.
"We have learned the intricacies of joint fiscal and monetary policy, we also know to always be ahead of the markets, not five seconds behind them," Papaconstantinou said in an interview. He added that the events of SVB and Credit Suisse were associated with "failures in risk management," and in the case of SVB, failures in control by U.S. policymakers were also noticeable.
While welcoming the progress made in Europe, Papaconstantinou stressed that it was too early to say whether there was a weaker side to the banking system.
Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino also said last week that banks in Spain have even stronger solvency and liquidity positions than many of their European counterparts. "We don't see any signs of stress in the Spanish market other than the general volatility we are seeing in the financial markets," she said, adding that the situation is quite different now than it was the day before.
It seems that the markets took the statements of European politicians quite optimistically. In the same currency market, the euro has already returned to its March highs and is ready to continue the medium-term bullish trend.
As for the technical picture of EURUSD, bulls have every chance of continuing growth and another update of the March highs. To do this, holding above 1.0880 is necessary, which will allow to go beyond 1.0930. From this level, it is possible to climb to 1.0970 with the prospect of updating 1.1005. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument around 1.0880, I expect any action from large buyers. If there is no one there, it would be nice to wait for the update of the 1.0840 low, or open long positions from 1.0790.
As for the technical picture of GBPUSD, bulls have regained control of the market, but it is too early to talk about the resumption of the upward trend. To maintain the initiative, buyers need to stay above 1.2385 and break through 1.2440. Only a breakout of this level will strengthen hopes for a further recovery to the 1.2500 area, after which it will be possible to talk about a sharper upward spurt of the pound to the 1.2550 area. If the pair falls, the bears will try to take control of 1.2380. If it succeeds, the breakdown of this range will strike a blow to the bulls' positions and push GBPUSD to the low of 1.2335, with the prospect of an exit at 1.2275.
