Traders monitoring the dynamics of the New Zealand dollar and the U.S. dollar has their focus on Wednesday's RBNZ meeting and the release of U.S. inflation indicators for June, which could trigger strong movements in NZD/USD.
As of writing, the pair was trading near the level of 0.6189, above key short-term support levels of 0.6174 (200 EMA in the 1-hour chart) and 0.6161 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart).
At the same time, NZD/USD remains in bearish territory: medium-term—below the key level of 0.6220 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and long-term—below key levels of 0.6460 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.6540 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).
A break below the support level at 0.6161 will be a signal to open short positions on NZD/USD.
In the case of further decline and a break of local support levels at 0.6110, 0.6090, 0.6060 (the lower boundary of the upward channel on the daily chart), NZD/USD will move deeper into the downward channel on the weekly chart towards its lower boundary, passing through the level of 0.5900 (local support level), with an intermediate target at the support level of 0.5975 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 0.7465 in February 2021 to 0.5510 reached in October 2022).
In an alternative scenario, NZD/USD will resume its upward movement towards key resistance levels at 0.6220 and 0.6240 (50 EMA on the weekly chart). Their breakout may trigger a stronger bullish movement with targets at resistance levels of 0.6310, 0.6390, 0.6460, 0.6485, 0.6500, 0.6540.
A signal to start implementing this scenario will be a breakout of the important resistance level at 0.6200 (144 EMA on the daily chart).
Support levels: 0.6174, 0.6170, 0.6161, 0.6110, 0.6090, 0.6060, 0.6000, 0.5990, 0.5975, 0.5900
Resistance levels: 0.6200, 0.6220, 0.6240, 0.6258, 0.6310, 0.6390, 0.6460, 0.6488, 0.6500, 0.6540
