AUD/USD is showing a downward trend, moving deeper into the downward channel on the weekly chart and entering the long-term bearish market zone below key resistance levels of 0.6950 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7040 (200 EMA on the weekly chart, 50 EMA on the monthly chart, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward wave from 0.9500 to 0.5510).
A break below the local support level of 0.6455 (May lows and 23.6% Fibonacci level) would signal an increase in short positions. As we can see, the situation is developing according to this primary scenario. A confirmed break of local support at 0.6400 will accelerate this decline towards the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart, passing near marks of 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170 (2022 lows and the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart).
In an alternative scenario, the fastest signal for the resumption of long positions could be a break of the resistance level of 0.6418 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart), with the confirmation being a breakout of the important short-term resistance level of 0.6478 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).
Medium-term growth targets are key resistance levels of 0.6685 (144 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6715 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 0.6740 (50 EMA on the weekly chart).
However, it is not yet necessary to count on this growth. Short positions remain preferable. A break of yesterday's and the intra-week low of 0.6365 will confirm the primary scenario and serve as an additional signal for new short positions. Only a break of key resistance levels of 0.6950 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.7000, 0.7040 (200 EMA on the weekly chart and 38.2% Fibonacci level) will bring AUD/USD into the long-term bullish market zone.
Support levels: 0.6400, 0.6390, 0.6365, 0.6300, 0.6285, 0.6200, 0.6170
Resistance levels: 0.6418, 0.6455, 0.6478, 0.6500, 0.6600, 0.6620, 0.6655, 0.6685, 0.6700, 0.6715, 0.6740, 0.6800, 0.6840, 0.6900, 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7040
