Early in the European session, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around the 200 EMA and above 3/8 Murray. We can see in the chart above that BTC is trading within the downtrend channel forming since January 27.
Practically, in the last few sessions, Bitcoin has been consolidating below the top of the bearish channel, with low volume and a decrease in volatility. Now we observe a technical rebound after having reached 42,000.
If Bitcoin falls below 3/8 Murray (42,187) or consolidates below $42,000 in the next few hours, we could expect a continuation of the bearish movement and the token could reach the low of January 28 around 41,600.
If the downward pressure prevails, the BTC price could approach the bottom of the downtrend channel at 41,150 and could ultimately reach the psychological level of $40,000 or around 2/8 Murray.
In case Bitcoin recovers, we should expect a sharp break above the 21 SMA at 42,990 and a break of the downtrend channel forming since January 27. Then, we could expect BTC to reach 43,750, a level that has become a strong barrier whose break could lead to the advance of Bitcoin in the short term and a rebound to $45,000.
As Bitcoin trades below 43,750, the outlook will remain negative for the instrument and any technical bounce could be seen as an opportunity to sell.
Below the 200 EMA (42,400) on the H4 chart, the outlook could be even more bearish and we could expect it to reach the low of January 23 around $38,500. The price could accelerate its fall. If BTC breaks this level, it could approach $35,000.
Technically, the eagle indicator has been giving a negative signal since January 30. So, if Bitcoin continues trading below $43,750, it is likely either to have a strong technical correction or a trade in the range between $43,750 and $40,625.
