EUR/USD Bounce Capped, Upside Limited Ahead OF US Claims Data
Key Takeaways:
- EUR/USD Resilience: Despite facing resistance at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, the EUR/USD pair remains resilient, with intraday support holding firm at 1.0755. This resilience suggests underlying strength in the euro, despite market uncertainties.
- Mixed Technical Signals: Technical indicators present a mixed picture, with bullish and bearish signals competing for dominance. While 'Hammer' patterns indicate potential bullish reversals, 'Shooting Star' and 'Bearish Engulfing' patterns suggest caution. Traders should monitor moving averages and RSI for clearer signals.
- Sentiment Shifts: Bullish sentiment prevails in the broader market, but recent days have seen a shift towards neutrality. With 56% bulls and 44% bears, traders should remain vigilant for any sudden sentiment shifts that could impact market dynamics.
Morning Outlook:
Today's forex calendar lacks major macro reports, but earnings releases from large US companies may drive market sentiment. China's declining inflation and disappointing results from companies like Kering signal potential volatility in luxury sector stocks. Investors eye US jobless claims, expecting continued low figures. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate a 4.4% unemployment rate, impacting market sentiment.
Key Events of The Day:
14:30, USA, Initial Jobless Claims: 220,000 (compared to 224,000 previously) (continued 1.8755 million vs 1.898 million previously)
Central Bankers Speeches:
12:00 - ECB Vujcic
12:30 - ECB Wunsch
14:30 - Fed Barkin
15:00 - BoE Dhingra
15:15 - ECB Elderson
16:00 - BoE Mann
16:30 - ECB Lane
18:05 - Fed Barkin
23:30 - RBA Bullock
US Stocks Quarterly Results:
Aurora Cannabis (ACB)
Take Two Interactive (TTWO)
Technical Market Outlook:
The EUR/USD's bounce halted at 38% Fibonacci retracement level (1.0789), with resistance at 1.0768 and 1.0781. Bulls face challenges ahead, with intraday support at 1.0755. Momentum from oversold conditions tests the fifty level. A breakout above 1.0810 could favor bulls.
H4 Time Frame Technical Insights:
- Candlestick Patterns: Identified 'Hammer' patterns signal potential bullish reversals. 'Shooting Star' and 'Bearish Engulfing' patterns hint at bearish sentiment.
- Moving Averages: Price interacts with a 50-period Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) and a 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting indecision. A bearish bias may emerge.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Neutral RSI (47.38) allows for price movement in either direction.
EUR/USD H1 Intraday Indicator Analysis:
- 7 Buy, 7 Sell, 7 Neutral technical indicators.
- 13 Buy, 5 Sell moving averages.
Sentiment Scoreboard:
Bullish sentiment dominates (56% vs. 44% bears). Neutral sentiment persists over the last three days (56% bulls vs. 44% bears).
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.08147 WR2 - 1.07958 WR1 - 1.07870 Weekly Pivot - 1.07769 WS1 - 1.07681 WS2 - 1.07580 WS3 - 1.07391
Trading Insights:
EUR/USD Bullish Scenario: Staying above support and the DEMA may lead to a move towards the 100 EMA (around 1.0833), confirming a bullish trend.
EUR/USD Bearish Scenario: A drop below support and DEMA could signal bearish movement, targeting lower support levels, possibly around 1.0700.
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Important Notice
The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.
Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.
