Data on GDP, labor market, and inflation levels are crucial for the Fed when planning its monetary policy parameters. Positive macroeconomic data from the United States increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rates at high levels. This is a bullish factor for the dollar and bearish for gold, whose prices are highly sensitive to changes in the monetary policies of the world's major central banks, primarily the Fed.
Among the positive factors for gold are the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, still-high inflation levels, potential economic growth issues, and expectations of a possible shift in the direction of the Fed's monetary policy as early as next year.
From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD, after breaking important short-term support levels at 1927.50 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart) and 1926.50 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) earlier this week, entered the zone of a short-term bear market.
A more successful attempt to break through important support levels at 1909.00 (200 EMA on the daily chart), 1900.00, and 1896.00 (61.8% Fibonacci level in the downward correction wave from its peak at 2070.00 to its low at 1615.00) followed by further decline will lead XAU/USD into a medium-term bear market zone, with long-term support levels at 1820.00 (144 EMA on the weekly chart), 1800.00, 1770.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), and intermediate levels near 1860.00, through which the lower line of the downward channel on the daily chart passes.
In an alternative scenario, the price will break through the resistance levels of 1926.50, 1927.50, and 1930.00 (50 EMA on the daily chart) and resume its ascent. The nearest growth target is the local resistance level at 1952.00, with a more distant target at the local resistance level of 1987.00.
Support levels: 1916.00, 1909.00, 1900.00, 1896.00, 1860.00, 1843.00, 1820.00, 1800.00, 1788.00, 1770.00, 1722.00
Resistance levels: 1925.00, 1926.50, 1927.50, 1930.00, 1952.00, 1987.00, 2000.00, 2010.00, 2048.00, 2070.00
