FX.co ★ EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on September 26th (analysis of morning deals). The euro was bought up after updating another low

In my morning forecast, I pointed out level 1.0579 and recommended making entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The decline and the formation of a false breakout, along with a MACD indicator divergence near 1.0579, led to an excellent entry point for buying the euro, resulting in an upward movement of 25 points. The technical picture was slightly revised in the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

The absence of Eurozone statistics helped buyers choose another monthly low, and how much will depend on the reaction to American data. Ahead of us are the consumer confidence indicator and the volume of home sales in the primary market in the United States. A decrease in these indicators will lead to another upward surge in the euro. If the data turns out to be better than expected, and FOMC member Michelle Bowman reminds traders of high-interest rates in the United States, pressure on the pair may return. I plan to act against the trend only after a decline and a false breakout around the new support level at 1.0571, formed at the end of today. Maintaining divergence on the MACD indicator will confirm the correct entry point for long positions with a target of returning to the resistance at 1.0603, which will be updated soon. A breakthrough and testing of this range from top to bottom will strengthen demand for the euro, providing an opportunity for a correction and a surge to 1.0634, where moving averages, playing on the bearish side, are located. The ultimate target will be the area at 1.0671, where I will take profit. In the case of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of activity at 1.0571 in the second half of the day, bears will achieve another monthly low and strengthen control over the market. In this case, only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0545 will signal a buying opportunity for the euro. I will open long positions after a bounce from 1.0520 with the goal of an upward correction within the day of 30-35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

Considering the expected negative reaction to US data, protecting the new resistance at 1.0603, where the moving averages, playing on the sellers' side, will be the main task. A false breakout at this level will provide a good entry point for selling with a move back down to 1.0571. Only after breaking and consolidating below this range and a reverse test from the bottom up do I expect to receive another selling signal to reach 1.0545 - a new monthly low, where I anticipate the presence of larger buyers. The ultimate goal will be the area at 1.0520, where I will take profit. In the event of an upward movement in EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.0603, which is the likely scenario, buyers will have a good chance to build an upward correction in the pair. In such a scenario, I will postpone short positions until the new resistance at 1.0634. Selling can also be considered there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I will open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.0671 with the goal of a downward correction of 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 19, there was a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. Negative changes in the Eurozone economy and the risk of further interest rate hikes by the ECB have led to further bearish sentiment. Not even the decision by the Fed to leave rates unchanged helped the euro, although it should be noted that the Fed leaders indicated that they do not rule out another rate hike in the US by the end of this year. The COT report indicated that non-commercial long positions decreased by 4,952 to 207,424, while non-commercial short positions increased by 6,147 to 105,443. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 8290. The closing price fell to 1.0719 from 1.0736, indicating a bearish market.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly H1 chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of an upward trend, the upper boundary of the indicator around 1.0603 will act as resistance.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.

• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.

MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.

• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.

• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.

• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.

• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.

• The net non-commercial position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.