The decision on the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be published on Wednesday (at 01:00 GMT). It is widely expected that the leaders of the New Zealand central bank will refrain from making changes to the parameters of the current credit and monetary policy, and the interest rate will be maintained at the current level of 5.50%.
Meanwhile, NZD/USD is trading in a bearish market: in the short term, it is below the resistance levels of 0.6150 (50 EMA on the weekly chart), 0.6125 (200 EMA on the daily chart), and in the long term, it is below the resistance levels of 0.6400 and 0.6485 (200 EMA on the weekly chart and the 50% Fibonacci level of the pair's decline from 0.7465 in February 2021 to 0.5510 reached in October 2022).
In an alternative scenario, a signal for resuming long positions could be a break above the short-term resistance level of 0.5952 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) with the prospect of growth towards the local resistance level of 0.6000.
Considering the overall downward trend of the pair, a rise above the 0.6000 resistance level is currently unlikely. Only a break above the key resistance level of 0.6485 will lead the pair into the long-term bull market zone.
In the main scenario, we expect a resumption of the decline. A break of local supports at levels 0.5890 and 0.5860 may trigger further decline towards the lows from March 2020, near the levels of 0.5600 and 0.5520.
Support levels: 0.5900, 0.5890, 0.5860, 0.5800, 0.5700, 0.5600, 0.5565, 0.5510
Resistance levels: 0.5925, 0.5961, 0.5973, 0.5982, 0.6000, 0.6060, 0.6085, 0.6125, 0.6150, 0.6200, 0.6258, 0.6310, 0.6385, 0.6400, 0.6485, 0.6500, 0.6510
