Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the European Currency
The test of the price at 1.0565 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 25 points. In the second half of the day, we are expecting data on changes in employment from ADP and the ISM manufacturing index. Poor data may only provide temporary support for the euro, but all attention will shift to the FOMC's decision on the main interest rate, which is likely to remain unchanged. The accompanying FOMC statement and Jerome Powell's press conference will truly impact market volatility. A strong stance by the Fed would lead to a rise in the dollar and a fall in EUR/USD. If we hear dovish notes, demand for the pair is likely to increase. For this reason, I will act based on the implementation of scenario #1.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0564 (the green line on the chart) with the aim of reaching the level of 1.0612. I recommend exiting the market at the point of 1.0612 and selling the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. Today, you can only expect the euro to rise after hearing the dovish rhetoric from FOMC representatives after the meeting. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, you can also buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0542 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect an increase towards the opposite levels of 1.0564 and 1.0612.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: You can sell the euro after the price reaches the level of 1.0542 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0495, where I recommend exiting the market and buying the euro in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point movement in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will increase in the case of a sharp and tough stance by the FOMC and further criticism of inflation. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.
Scenario #2: Today, you can also sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0564 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0542 and 1.0495.
Chart Explanation:
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line – the anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line – the anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making trading decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.
