Despite today's growth, USD/CHF is developing a long-term downward trend, trading in the zone of long-term and medium-term bearish markets—below key resistance levels at 0.9290 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and 0.8995 (200 EMA on the daily chart).
At the same time, the price is trying to break into the zone of the short-term bullish market, located above the resistance level of 0.8760 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).
In the event of a successful attempt and the development of this scenario, the important resistance levels become the targets: 0.8867 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 0.8890 (50 EMA on the daily chart).
However, this is not a long-term or even medium-term upward trend yet. It may form after a sustained rise into the zone above key medium-term resistance levels of 0.8995 (200 EMA on the daily chart) and 0.9030 (50 EMA on the weekly chart).
However, only the breakout of the key resistance level 0.9290 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and the 0.9352 resistance level (50% Fibonacci level of the upward correction wave, which began in October 2022 near the level of 1.0147) will lead USD/CHF into the long-term bullish market zone, and the breakout of the 1.0280 resistance level (200 EMA on the monthly chart)—into the global bullish market zone.
For now, despite the almost 4-day upward correction, short positions remain preferable for the USD/CHF pair. The breakdown of local support at the level of 0.8730 may be the first signal to resume short positions.
Support levels: 0.8730, 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8600, 0.8555
Resistance levels: 0.8760, 0.8700, 0.8800, 0.8867, 0.8890, 0.8900, 0.8933, 0.8955, 0.900, 0.9030, 0.9080, 0.9164, 0.9220, 0.9243, 0.9290, 0.9352
Trading Scenarios:
Main Scenario: Sell Stop 0.8725. Stop-Loss 0.8785. Targets 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8600, 0.8555
Alternative Scenario: Buy Stop 0.8785. Stop-Loss 0.8725. Targets 0.8800, 0.8867, 0.8890, 0.8900, 0.8933, 0.8955, 0.900, 0.9030, 0.9080, 0.9164, 0.9220, 0.9243, 0.9290, 0.9352
"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but can serve as a guide when planning and placing your trading positions.
