FX.co ★ GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on January 23rd (analysis of morning deals). The pound follows a well-established scenario

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2737 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. After updating another daily high, the rise and the formation of a false breakout at this level provided a selling entry point, resulting in a drop in the pair by only 20 points. The technical picture was slightly revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following conditions are required:

The absence of significant UK statistics has influenced the pound's direction. Still, buyers continue to control the market, pushing for the daily high to be updated each time, indicating an upward trend. Considering that there is no important US data today, bulls will likely attempt to push the pound even higher. If pressure on GBP/USD increases, buyers must prove their presence near the new support at 1.2712, where moving averages are located, playing in their favor. I will act on a false breakout, providing an excellent entry point for long positions to continue the bullish trend with the target of updating 1.2744. Breaking and consolidating above this range will strengthen demand for the pound and open the path to 1.2765. The ultimate target will be the maximum at 1.2783, where I intend to make a profit. With the pair's decline and a lack of bullish activity at 1.2712, trading will move into a sideways channel, and pressure on the pound will increase. In such a case, I will postpone purchases until a test of 1.2687. Only a false breakout will confirm the correct entry point into the market. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from the minimum of 1.2661 with the goal of a 30-35 point intraday correction.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following conditions are required:

Sellers are acting reluctantly as the bull market updates daily highs. Since sellers have again failed to defend the maximum, there is no significant reason to expect a sharp decline in the pair. I will act on the rise following the formation of a false breakout around the new resistance at 1.2744, the daily high. This will confirm the entry point for selling to return to the support at 1.2712, formed during the first half of the day. Breaking and retesting this range from bottom to top will strike a more serious blow to bullish positions, restoring market balance and opening the path to 1.2687. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.2661, where I intend to make a profit. In the event of further growth in GBP/USD and a lack of activity at 1.2744 in the second half of the day, buyers will continue to hold the initiative in anticipation of a move to the annual maximum. In such a case, I will postpone selling until a false breakout at 1.2765. Without a downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.2783, but only with the expectation of a pair correction down by 30-35 points.

The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for January 16th showed a decrease in short positions and an increase in long positions. Recently, fundamental statistics, especially inflation-related, have allowed the British pound to stay afloat. Representatives of the Bank of England have recently made it clear that they will keep rates at current highs and fight price increases despite economic problems. This is both good and bad for the pound. It's good in the short term and bad in the long term because the normalization of economic growth will take longer than expected. In the near future, activity data for January will shed light on the current state of affairs. The latest COT report states that long non-commercial positions increased by 5,546 to 66,230, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 4,651 to 35,299. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,480.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pound growth.

Note: The author analyzes the moving averages' period and prices on the hourly chart (H1) and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands:

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.2700 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.
• Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands. Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.