For the 12th consecutive week, GBP/USD has been trading within the range between the key resistance level at 1.2735 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) and the key support level at 1.2515 (200 EMA on the daily chart). The price clearly lacks drivers for a more confident movement in either direction. Perhaps the inflation data in the U.S. will become such a driver.
A break below support levels at 1.2654 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart), 1.2640 (50 EMA on the daily chart), and then 1.2634 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart) will signal the implementation of a bearish scenario.
A break of the key support level at 1.2515 (200 EMA on the daily chart), in turn, will lead GBP/USD into the zone of a medium-term bearish market. In case of further decline, GBP/USD will head deeper into the downward channel on the weekly chart, the lower boundary of which is near the local support levels at 1.1700, 1.1800.
In the alternative scenario, the pair's current growth will continue during the American trading session. Further growth and a break above the zone of key resistance levels at 1.2735 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), 1.2770 (50 EMA on the monthly chart) will lead GBP/USD into the zone of a long-term bullish market, actualizing long-term long positions.
The very first signal for the implementation of this scenario could be the breakout of today's high at 1.2676, and the confirming one will be the breakout of the "round" resistance level at 1.2700.
Support levels: 1.2654, 1.2640, 1.2634, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2515, 1.2500
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2735, 1.2770, 1.2800, 1.2827, 1.2900, 1.2995, 1.3100, 1.3140, 1.3200
Trading scenarios
Main Scenario: Sell Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2680. Targets 1.2640, 1.2634, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2515, 1.2500
Alternative Scenario: Buy Stop 1.2680. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Targets 1.2700, 1.2735, 1.2770, 1.2800, 1.2827, 1.2900, 1.2995, 1.3100, 1.3140, 1.3200
"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but can serve as a guide when planning and placing trading positions.
