Yesterday, the pair formed several entry signals, but we can hardly consider them as good entry points. Let's have a look at what happened on the 5-minute chart. In my morning review, I mentioned the level of 1.0876 as a possible entry point. The pair traded higher, but due to low volatility, it was not possible to form a false breakout and return below the level of 1.0876 to form a sell signal. In the second half of the day, short positions after an unsuccessful consolidation above 1.0886 led to losses, and the pair did not fall. Short positions a little higher, around 1.0905, generated a signal, but the downward movement totaled just 10 pips and that was the end of it.
What is needed to open long positions on EUR/USD
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his remarks about reinforcing the central bank's position against persistent inflation did not convince traders that interest rates will remain at their highs for a long time - especially after the recent weak US economic data. Today is an important day. In addition to the German industrial orders data, the European Central Bank will announce its decision on interest rates. After that the monetary policy report will be released and the ECB press conference will follow. If ECB President Christine Lagarde maintains a hawkish stance, the euro will continue to rise. If we hear a softer tone, EUR/USD will probably edge down, but we will be ready for that as well. For this reason, I intend to act on dips only after a false breakout in the area of the nearest support at 1.0884, which is in line with the bullish moving averages. This will be a proper condition for buying in anticipation of the euro's continued growth to the area of 1.0915. A breakout and a downward test of this range will lead to a new bullish trend, giving a chance to buy during a climb to 1.0944. The farthest target will be the 1.0967 high, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0884, the selling pressure on the euro will increase, which will lead to a larger drop with the prospect of testing 1.0856. I plan to enter the market there only after a false breakout has formed. I will open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0830, bearing in mind an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.
What is needed to open short positions on EUR/USD
The bears tried to stop a new trend from forming yesterday, but it did not work out as well as it had hoped. Today, only a dovish stance from Lagarde and an unsuccessful consolidation above 1.0915 are a suitable condition for selling with the prospect of testing 1.0884 - the support established yesterday. A breakout and consolidation below this range, as well as an upward retest, will provide another selling point during a slide of the price to 1.0856. As a result, the sellers will regain control over the market. The farthest target will be at least 1.0830, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD moves up in the first half of the day, continuing the bullish trend, and the bears do not show up at 1.0915, the buyers will retain an advantage. In this case, I will postpone selling until the test of the next resistance at 1.0944. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0967, bearing in mind a downward correction of 30-35 pips.
COT report:
According to the COT report (Commitment of Traders) from February 27, the number of both long and short positions dropped. Apparently, a pause before the meeting of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve affects market volatility and the positions of large traders, preventing traders from buying risky assets. With the weak European economy, many expect the European regulator to cut rates sooner than the Fed, limiting the euro's growth. However, the ECB officials are denying this by repeatedly stating that they are not going to cut interest rates, which keeps the market balanced. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions fell by 7,960 to 205,234 while short non-commercial positions fell by 2,798 to 142,380. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 3,895.
Indicators' signals
Moving averages
The instrument is trading above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, which points to a possible rise in the euro.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the analyst on the 1-hour chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case EUR/USD goes down, the indicator's lower border near 1.0880 will act as support.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
