Economic reports can be broadly categorized into two main groups: those that have significant impact and those that have minor impact. However, even seemingly insignificant economic data, albeit occasionally, can influence the market. This requires the combination of two factors: an empty economic calendar, preferably over a couple of days, and a significant deviation between the actual value and the forecast. And this is exactly what happened with yesterday's report. US durable goods orders rose by 1.4%, against the forecast of 0.7%. This indicates the prospect of significant growth in consumer activity, which is a driving force behind economic growth. As a result, the correction that had just begun in the currency market immediately ended, and the dollar strengthened once again. The greenback managed to recoup a significant portion of its losses over the past two trading days.
Today, the economic calendar is also empty. Even more so than yesterday. There isn't even any minor macro data. Furthermore, we're still seeing signs of the dollar's overbought condition. And apparently, the euro may start a corrective phase once again. It is quite possible that it will attempt to return to the levels it was at before yesterday's US trading session.
The corrective phase from the support level of 1.0800 stopped around the value of 1.0850, which is where the volume of short positions had increased. As a result, the quote once again headed towards the support level of 1.0800.
On the 30M, 1H and 4H charts, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the lower area of 30/50, which points to the bearish sentiment.
On the 4-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, which corresponds to the direction of the corrective cycle.
Outlook
In order to raise the volume of short positions on the euro, the price must settle below the level of 1.0800. Otherwise, the level will continue to serve as a support, ultimately leading to the pair fluctuating between 1.0800/1.0850. The bullish scenario will come into play in case the price settles above the value of 1.0850 by the end of the day. In this case, the euro may recover.
In terms of complex indicator analysis, indicators signal the downward cycle in the short term and intraday periods.
