On Thursday, the market observes somewhat contradictory dynamics of the dollar. It weakens in the DXY index, which primarily consists of the euro, but strengthens against safe-haven assets—the yen, franc, and gold.
At the same time, market participants who are in active short positions on the dollar may want to pay attention to the dynamics of U.S. government bond yields, which continue to rise.
From a technical point of view, the dollar index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 terminal) remains in a bullish market zone, medium-term—above the support level of 103.75 (200 EMA on the daily chart), long-term—above the key support level of 100.90 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).
Therefore, long positions on the dollar index remain preferable for now.
A signal for new purchases could be the breakout of the important short-term resistance level of 104.36 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).
In case of a decrease to the support levels of 103.92 (200 EMA on the 4-hour chart) and 103.75 (200 EMA, 144 EMA on the daily chart), it is possible to place pending limit orders for purchase with stops below the 103.60 mark.
In an alternative scenario, after the confirmed breakout of the support level at 103.75, the price may deepen into the downward channel on the weekly chart, with targets at support levels of 102.60 and 102.00 (144 EMA on the weekly chart).
The breakout of the key support level of 100.90 (200 EMA on the weekly chart) will bring the DXY into the long-term bear market zone. The bullish trend of the dollar will be broken.
This scenario may gain momentum if tomorrow's U.S. Labor Department report turns out to be significantly weaker than forecasted. Further dynamics of the dollar and its DXY index will largely depend on the fundamental background and the actions of the Federal Reserve.
Support levels: 104.10, 104.00, 103.92, 103.75, 103.00, 102.60, 102.00, 101.00, 100.90, 100.00
Resistance levels: 104.36, 104.95, 105.00, 106.00, 106.80, 107.00, 107.30
Trading Scenarios
Main scenario: BuyStop 104.40. Stop-Loss 103.60. Targets 104.95, 105.00, 106.00, 106.80, 107.00, 107.30
Alternative scenario: SellStop 103.60. Stop-Loss 104.10. Targets 103.00, 102.60, 102.00, 101.00, 100.90, 100.00
"Targets" correspond to support/resistance levels. This also does not mean that they will necessarily be reached, but they can serve as a guideline for planning and placing your trading positions.
