US industrial production has stopped declining, but it has not grown either. The -0.2% decline was expected to be replaced by 0.6% growth. However, that didn't happen. What's remarkable is that although the US dollar is clearly overbought, the EUR/USD pair did not rebound after the data was published. The market continues to be stagnant. And this is likely due to the stark contrast between European and US macro data. Clearly, things are going much better in the US. Moreover, yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed all the hawkish statements made by his subordinates a week earlier. Of course, the head of the US central bank did not even mention the possibility of raising rates, but he did suggest that interest rates could stay high for a longer period. Overall, Powell didn't say anything new, but he did provide some moral support to the dollar.
Today, the economic calendar is empty. There is no need to consider the eurozone inflation data, as this is just a final estimate, which should only confirm the preliminary estimate. Only in extremely rare cases do these data diverge. This is a kind of force majeure. So nothing should prevent a local rebound, which the market desperately needs.
Although the euro is oversold and the dollar is overbought, the quote continues to stay at the low of the downward cycle. This indicates clear pressure from the information flow, which, contrary to technical analysis, does not provide the opportunity for the pair to start a correction.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is hovering in the oversold zone, which suggests that the instrument should be due for a price correction.
On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, corresponding to the direction of the downward cycle.
Outlook
In order to increase the volume of short positions despite signs of oversold conditions, the price must settle below the level of 1.0600. In this case, the quote could move towards the 2023 local low. Otherwise, the area around the 1.0600 level may act as support, leading to a rebound.
Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicates a downward cycle.
