Trade Analysis and Tips on Trading the European Currency
The test of the price at 1.0638 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the euro against the trend, and it turned out to be correct. As a result, the pair didn't move anywhere, and the released data on inflation in the eurozone, which remained unrevised, did not lead to a surge in market volatility, leaving everything unchanged. The only plus in the current situation is the absence of important data on the US economy in the second half of the day, which may allow the euro to continue its upward correction with a new daily high. If buyers do not show themselves at the current levels, pressure on EUR/USD will likely return, and we may see a significant drop in the pair, similar to yesterday. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and#2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0652 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.0685. At 1.0685, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, the euro's rise can be expected to continue the correction against the absence of US statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0634 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0652 and 1.0685.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0634 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0606, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction immediately (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0652 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline towards the opposite level of 1.0634 and 1.0606.
Chart Analysis:
Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
