Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the European Currency
The test of the price at 1.0675 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, limiting the further downward potential of the pair, especially within the recent upward correction we have been observing. For this reason, I did not sell. I didn't wait for a second test of this price before buying euros, either. The released data on the eurozone had no impact on the market, which was generally expected. In the second half of the day, I recommend shifting the focus to the US labor market and real estate market figures. The weekly number of initial jobless claims, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index, existing home sales volume, and the leading indicators index - these are the factors that can influence the market direction and lead to the strengthening of the US dollar, thereby pushing the euro down. If the data matches forecasts, trading will likely remain within a sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.0692 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0740. At 1.0740, I will exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, euro growth can be expected as part of a correction against the backdrop of weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0667, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expectations include a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0692 and 1.0740.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell euros after the price reaches 1.0667 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0633, where I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0692, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reverse market turnaround. Expectations include a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0667 and 1.0633.
Chart Information:
Thin green line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
Thick green line - anticipated price, where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold;
Thick red line - anticipated price, where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above by me. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
