Trade Analysis and Advice for the British Pound
The test of the price at 1.2463 in the first half of the day coincided with the beginning of the MACD indicator's downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair did not decline, and trading remained within a narrow sideways channel. I decided to exit positions with minimal losses and wait for new signals in the second half of the day after the release of American statistics. The weekly number of initial jobless claims, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index, existing home sales volume, and the leading indicators index - all of this will affect market volatility. Weak reports are a reason to buy the pound as part of an upward correction. Strong data above economists' forecasts will lead to a decline in GBP/USD. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2486 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2523 (thicker green line). At around 1.2523, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, pound growth can be expected only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2460, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expectations include a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2486 and 1.2523.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2460 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2426, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Like yesterday, sellers will show themselves without buyer activity around the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2486, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reverse market turnaround. Expectations include a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2460 and 1.2426.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2486 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2523 (thicker green line). At around 1.2523, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, pound growth can be expected only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2460, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expectations include a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2486 and 1.2523.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2460 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2426, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Like yesterday, sellers will show themselves without buyer activity around the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2486, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reverse market turnaround. Expectations include a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2460 and 1.2426.
Chart Information:
Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought;
Thick green line - anticipated price, where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold;
Thick red line - anticipated price, where Take Profit can be set or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
