Trade Analysis and Advice for the Japanese Yen
The test of the price at 154.45 occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly risen from the zero mark, limiting the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I refrained from buying, and it was the right decision. As a result, there was no continuation of the upward trend. In the second half of the day, I suggest shifting focus to the US labor market and real estate market figures. Good statistics on the decrease in weekly initial jobless claims and the increase in existing home sales volume will allow for a continuation of USD/JPY growth, returning to the annual maximum area, where we will again see intervention from the Bank of Japan. If the figures disappoint, dollar sellers can expect a decline in the pair during US trading, but one should not hope for a strong and directional movement. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 154.60 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 155.19 (thicker green line). At around 155.19, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for pair growth today will materialize after strong US statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.30, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expectations include a rise to the opposite levels of 154.60 and 155.19.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 154.30 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.74, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.60, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reverse market turnaround. Expectations include a decline to the opposite levels of 154.30 and 153.74.
Chart Information:
Thin green line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
Thick green line - anticipated price, where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold;
Thick red line - anticipated price, where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember, you need a clear trading plan like the one presented above for successful trading. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
