Analysis of trades and trading tips for the euro
The test of the 1.0806 price level coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's further upward potential, especially within the downward trend observed the previous day. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. I did not receive any other entry signals either. The statistics from Spain and the Eurozone were expectedly ignored, but we have much new and interesting information from the US ahead. We expect figures on GDP change for the quarter, the core personal consumption expenditures index, the GDP price index, weekly initial jobless claims, and the balance of trade in goods. We also need to review the pending home sales data from the US. Weak figures will likely push the euro up, updating yesterday's high. Strong data will return pressure on the pair. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the 1.0825 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0859. At 1.0859, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. The euro's upward movement today can be expected only after news of a GDP revision to the downside. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only just starting its rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.0802 twice in a row when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0825 and 1.0859.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0802 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0773, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25 point movement from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if buyers fail to be active around the daily high and strong US statistics come out. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.0825 twice in a row when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0802 and 1.0773.
Chart Explanation:
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
