Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency
The test of the price at 1.0885 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move up from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair moved up about 10 points, and that was it. The reaction to the decision of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates was very subdued, so the upward trend did not develop in the second half of the day. Today, all attention will be focused on reports on changes in industrial production in Germany, the trade balance of Germany and France, changes in GDP in the eurozone, and changes in employment levels in the eurozone. Only very good indicators, especially regarding the pace of growth in the European economy, will save the euro from a new sell-off, which has been looming for quite some time. Also, remember that important statistics from the USA are ahead of us, so there may be no movement at all. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro can be done when the price reaches around 1.0901 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0932. At the point of 1.0932, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. Counting on the rise of the euro today is possible only after very good data on the eurozone countries and GDP growth rates. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0881 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect growth to opposite levels of 1.0901 and 1.0932.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0881 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0850, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will increase in case of unsuccessful consolidation around the daily maximum and poor data on the eurozone. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0901 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0881 and 1.0850.
On the chart:
Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the expected price where you can place Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line - the expected price where you can place Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to guide yourself by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious in making decisions to enter the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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