Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the Japanese yen
The price test of 157.36 came at a time when the MACD indicator went up a lot from zero, which clearly limited the further upward potential of the pair even within the bull market. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, and as you can see on the chart, I turned out to be right. In the second half of the day, only data on the NFIB small business optimism indicator in the United States are released, which is unlikely to affect the market direction greatly. For this reason, after a small morning correction, we can expect another development of an upward trend in the continuation of the dollar's growth with the release of new weekly highs. But remember that the Fed is meeting tomorrow, so that I wouldn't count on particularly sharp movements. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point in the area of 157.20 (green line on the chart) in order to grow to the level of 157.55 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 157.55, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to count on the pair's growth today in the continuation of the upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 156.99 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 157.20 and 157.55.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 156.99 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 156.71, where I will exit sales, as well as immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful attempt to cling to the weekly maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 157.20 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.99 and 156.71.
Chart Legend:
Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
