Review of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0842 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. Additionally, weak PMI data from the Eurozone intensified the pressure on the pair, leading to a drop of almost 15 points from the entry point. Unfortunately, a larger movement did not materialize. In the second half of the day, we expect to see a lot of interesting statistics related to the US economy. Anticipated are figures for manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and composite PMI for July of this year. Positive data will encourage more dollar buying and euro selling. In addition, figures for new home sales and the US goods trade balance will be released, although they are unlikely to significantly alter the current dynamics. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price level of 1.0854 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0874. At 1.0874, I will exit the market and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement in the euro can be expected today following weak US statistics. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0834 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the levels of 1.0854 and 1.0874 can be anticipated.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0834 (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0815 level. I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 points from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if the release of strong US data fails. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0854 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the levels of 1.0834 and 1.0815 can be expected.
Chart Details:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Presumed price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Presumed price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas.
Important: Beginner forex traders should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. Remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
