Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 154.26 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar and anticipating further correction before significant fundamental events. As a result, the pair rose by 50 points. Selling at the 154.75 level did not bring the expected success. In the second half of the day, we are awaiting data on the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, and the Housing Price Index. Good results could increase pressure on the yen, leading to further growth of the pair. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 154.95 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 155.28 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.28, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30 to 35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Significant growth of the pair today can only be expected after positive U.S. data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 154.72 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 154.95 and 155.28.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the 154.72 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.38 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20 to 25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the attempt to break above the 154.95 level fails. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 154.95 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 154.72 and 154.38.
Chart Explanation:
Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed, or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed, or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. It is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important. Beginner forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
