Analysis and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.3171 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning its downward movement from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound in the context of a downward correction. As a result, the pair fell by more than 40 points. Data on the change in the UK's M4 money supply and the number of approved mortgage applications helped the pound withstand pressure in the first half of the day, but U.S. inflation statistics renewed demand for the dollar, leading to a significant pound sell-off by the end of the week. Today, buyers can anticipate a positive report on the UK's manufacturing PMI, which is better than that of the Eurozone or the U.S. Positive figures could help the pound recover some of Friday's losses. For the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches around 1.3155 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3182 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3182, I plan to exit the position and also sell the pound in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the level. It is unlikely that the pound will experience strong growth today, but a correction based on positive data is possible. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting its upward movement from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3127 twice when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Expect growth to the levels of 1.3155 and 1.3182.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price updates the 1.3127 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3093 level. At this level, I plan to exit the position and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points from the level. Selling the pound can be done after unsuccessful attempts by buyers to return above 1.3155 and weak manufacturing statistics. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward movement from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3155 twice when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline to the levels of 1.3127 and 1.3093.
Chart Details:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Estimated price where to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Estimated price where to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: For beginner forex traders, it is crucial to make market entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
