Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The price test at 1.1051 coincided with the MACD indicator having moved significantly below the zero line, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's downward potential. Traders who continued to sell in the direction of the downtrend might have captured about 15 points of profit. With no statistical data available in the first half of the day, attention will likely shift to U.S. data, which could significantly impact the market. Expected figures include the U.S. manufacturing activity index and the ISM manufacturing index. Strong data indicating growth could lead to further declines in the dollar and a rise in the euro. For intraday trading, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1048 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1083. I will exit the market at 1.1083 and may also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. A significant upward movement in the euro can be expected following weak U.S. statistics. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1029 price, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. We can expect a rise to the target levels of 1.1048 and 1.1083.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1029 (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1000 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro back immediately, targeting a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if there are no buyers near the daily high and strong U.S. statistics. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1048 price, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. We can expect a drop to the target levels of 1.1029 and 1.1000.
On the Chart:
- Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further rise above this level is unlikely.
- Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
