Analysis of trades and tips for trading the euro
The test of the 1.1050 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's upward potential—especially in a falling market. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. European statistics were ignored, and the data from Germany and inflation figures did not bring any surprises. In the second half of the day, we expect minor reports on the NFIB small business optimism index and a speech from FOMC member Michael S. Barr. His dovish comments, aimed at further reassuring markets of the regulator's soft stance, could slightly weaken the U.S. dollar, but it is unlikely that many will want to buy the euro ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this Thursday, where the regulator is expected to cut interest rates. As for intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the price area around 1.1050 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1084 level. At 1.1084, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement in the euro today can only be expected if the U.S. data turns out to be very weak. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1031 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1050 and 1.1084.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1031 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1000 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if there are no buyers near 1.1050 and the U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1050 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1031 and 1.1000.
Chart Overview:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually close profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually close profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit. This risk is especially high if you are trading large volumes without using proper money management.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
