Analysis of trades and tips for trading the British pound
The test of the 1.3085 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. Despite better-than-expected unemployment data from the UK, disappointing income growth figures capped the pair's upward potential during the first half of the day. In the second half, we expect minor reports on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and a speech from FOMC member Michael S. Barr. His dovish comments, aimed at reassuring markets about the regulator's soft stance, may slightly weaken the U.S. dollar, but it is unlikely to provide significant support for the British pound, which has been under strong selling pressure recently. As for intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if it reaches the entry point around 1.3106 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3138 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3138, I will exit the buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A rise in the pound today can be expected if U.S. data is weak. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3086 level when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3106 and 1.3138.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3086 (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3058, where I will close sell trades and open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 points from the level. Sellers will become active if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3106 level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3086 and 1.3058.
Chart Overview:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually close profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually close profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must make cautious decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, for successful trading, having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above, is essential. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
