On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday toward the corrective level of 161.8% – 1.3259. This level is quite far, and during a "bearish" trend, it makes more sense to expect a decline rather than such strong growth. As long as the "bearish" trend remains, I am more inclined toward selling.
The current wave situation presents no concerns. The last completed wave downward broke the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave, which is located at the level of 1.3264. Therefore, at the moment, we are dealing with a "bearish" trend. The new upward wave must break the last peak from September 6 for the trend to switch back to "bullish."
The news background on Friday was weak and neutral. Traders paused, awaiting more significant events this week. Besides the FOMC meeting, we are also awaiting the results of the Bank of England meeting. At first glance, it might seem that there is no intrigue since rates are expected to remain at the current level of 5%. However, much will depend on Andrew Bailey's rhetoric and the voting results on interest rates. The Bank of England is on the path to monetary policy easing, so only rate cuts should be expected. Traders need to assess how quickly the rates will be reduced. More signals from the Bank of England about swift easing will further weaken the pound. However, this week, there is no talk of a rate cut, and the pound doesn't need much to rise. The "bearish" trend still persists but is weak. Last week, the bulls showed that they are not planning to leave the market completely or for long. The pound only needs to rise by 75-100 points to reach the last peak. That would be enough for the "bearish" trend to turn back into a "bullish" one.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 1.3044 level and reversed in favor of the pound. It is possible that this rebound was the real reason for the pair's growth yesterday, not the ECB meeting or the PPI index. This explanation seems more plausible than attributing it to subjective factors such as Christine Lagarde's stance. The CCI indicator had formed a "bearish" divergence, but it has since lost its relevance. Consolidation below the 1.3044 level would favor the continuation of the pair's decline.
Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became much less "bullish" over the past week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 18,701, while the number of short positions decreased by only 911. Bulls still hold a solid advantage in terms of contract volume. The gap between long and short positions is 90 thousand: 142 thousand against 52 thousand.
In my opinion, the pound still has a downward outlook, but the COT reports currently suggest otherwise. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 102 thousand to 142 thousand, while the number of short positions has decreased from 58 thousand to 52 thousand. I believe that, over time, professional players will start to reduce their long positions or increase their short positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already played out. However, it's important to remember that this is merely speculation. Graphical analysis indicates a "bearish" trend at the moment, but it is very unstable.
News Calendar for the US and UK:
On Monday, the economic events calendar is empty; no significant entries are scheduled. The news background is unlikely to have an impact on market sentiment for the rest of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair is possible today, but I don't see any levels around which trading signals can be sought. I would not rush into buying even if the pair closes above the 1.3054 level. The trend for the pound is still "bearish."
Fibonacci levels are plotted at 1.2892 – 1.2298 on the hourly chart and at 1.4248 – 1.0404 on the 4-hour chart.
